PwC's Autofacts Forecast 2013 Global Automotive Light Vehicle Assembly to Exceed 83 Million Units and Top 107 Million by 2019
Megatrends driving the global automotive industry:
European Union. The European outlook remains a significant concern for the automotive industry, both in terms of its regional importance as well as the threat of a global contagion scenario. While there continues to be fluctuation below the topline, the region as a whole is expected to see a further, albeit slower, decline in 2013. Most markets will likely see a depressed first half of 2012 with some territories realizing a slight recovery as economic conditions begin to improve towards the end of the year. With this in mind, Autofacts is forecasting EU assembly of 15.6 million units in 2013, a decline of 200k units compared to 2012.
North America. While 2012 was a boom year for the region, sales and assembly growth are expected to taper in 2013. Pent-up demand continues to exist in the market with the average fleet age in the U.S. at approximately 11 years. U.S. sales are expected to reach 15.3 million units in 2013, up from 14.4 million units in 2012. In terms of assembly for the region, Autofacts is forecasting 15.8 million units for 2013, up from 15.4 million units in 2012.
BRIC Recovery. After a relatively slow growth year in 2012, BRIC markets are expected to start heating up again in 2013. As expected, China will lead the way with 2013 assembly forecasted to reach 18.9m units, up from 16.4 million in 2012.
Global Emission Standards. Increasingly stringent emission standards continue to drive innovation around improving vehicle efficiency. Improving existing technologies, while exploring new opportunities are playing a significant role across multiple industry sectors.
Cyber Security Threats. The rapid advancement of the industry has been underscored by gains in technology, including advanced manufacturing techniques, telematics, and infotainment. Technology-sharing agreements and JVs between OEMs will further increase innovation – and cross-border, cross-company IP risk.
"Automotive companies remain cautious about economic conditions in Europe," said Rick Hanna, global automotive leader, PwC. "However, overall we estimate that the global automotive industry which will prosper in 2013 from emerging market growth and remaining pent-up demand in the US."
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About PwC's Automotive Practice
PwC's global automotive practice leverages its extensive experience in the industry to help companies solve complex business challenges with efficiency and quality. One of PwC's global automotive practice's key competitive advantages is Autofacts®, a team of automotive industry specialists dedicated to ongoing analysis of sector trends. Autofacts provides our team of more than 4,700 automotive professionals and our clients with data and analysis to assess implications, make recommendations, and support decisions to compete in the global marketplace.
Autofacts, PwC's automotive forecasting service, is a provider of automotive market analysis, strategy development, and competitive intelligence to the world's leading vehicle manufacturers, automotive suppliers, and support organizations. Autofacts service offerings are available on-demand, for one-time purchase and through an annual subscription basis to access the on-line portal with Autofacts' proprietary data query tool. For more information regarding Autofacts or to sign up for a free monthly subscription to Autofacts Analyst Notes, visit www.autofacts.com.
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